Would we have to scrap all the trade deals done since Brexit?

The previous Tory government loved to boast of the new trade deals it had signed since Brexit: Britain finally free to trade with the world once again! It put a lot of time and effort into signing these deals. And so the question is raised: if we went back into the EU, wouldn’t we lose all these new trade deals?

It’s a rollover

It is sometimes forgotten that when the UK left the EU, it did not affect only its terms of trade with the EU but also with every other country. This is because we were no longer included in trade deals that the EU, with us as a member, had signed with the rest of the world.

To solve this problem, the British government did ‘rollover’ deals. This meant that the terms of the deal between the EU and a country were copy-pasted into a new deal between the UK and that country. The vast majority of the 70 trade deals that the government signed after Brexit were of this nature: the government called them ‘new’ deals but they represented no actual change in the trade relationship.

The most significant altered deals negotiated were with Australia and New Zealand. The main difference however was UK access for Australian and New Zealand meat, with little gained in return.

Small effects

The trade deals that were signed are projected to have very small effects on the British economy, especially when compared to the much greater economic gains from EU membership.

EU membership is worth much more than any of the small trade deals that have been signed since Brexit

In 2023 the government joined the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP, see below) – a trade deal for Asia-Pacific countries – to much fanfare. It was then revealed by the Office for Budget Responsibility that joining this trade deal will add just 0.04% to GDP – and not 0.04% per year, but 0.04% over 15 years!

So yes, we would have to scrap some trade deals done since Brexit, but it would have little effect. Most deals are negligible and all are a product of the former Tory government’s scramble to do trade deals (even on unfavourable terms) because of their view that the very act of signing trade deals showed that Brexit was worthwhile.

Ultimately EU membership is a much more significant trade deal, in terms of its size and value to the British economy, than any of the small deals that have been signed since Brexit. ‘Rollover’ deals, meanwhile, would simply roll back into our EU membership.

Does CPTPP 'lock out' rejoining?

One other Brexiter claim about the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is that it makes rejoining the EU “impossible”. But this is not true.

It is true that it is not possible to be a member of both the EU and CPTPP. However, the simple solution to this is to leave CPTPP. The UK can pull out of CPTPP at any time – it just has to give six months’ notice under the treaty’s Article 30.6.

Since the economic effects of CPTPP membership are so tiny (see above) and the economic effects of EU membership are so large, there is no reason to avoid leaving this trade bloc in favour of the EU.

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